Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Manufacturing Employment Growth
Across Iowa Counties
Manufacturing
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Manufacturing
Employment Growth
Iowa:
2010-2022 = 0.73%
2022 = 2.40%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of manufacturing employment growth across all of Iowa's 99 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Iowa Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the manufacturing employment growth of Iowa's 99 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Manufacturing
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Manufacturing
Employment Growth
Iowa:
2010-2022 = 0.73%
2022 = 2.40%
This figure displays the 99 counties of Iowa as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the manufacturing employment growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term manufacturing employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 0.73%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 0.73% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (0.73%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 55 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 39 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 52 counties whose most recent (2022) manufacturing employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.40%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 42 counties whose manufacturing employment growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 99 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 0.73% over 2010-2022 and 2.40% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual manufacturing employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (0.73%) and near-term (2.40%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (0.73%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Iowa average (2.40%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (0.73%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (2.40%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual manufacturing employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (0.73%) and near-term (2.40%).
   
 
Summary of Iowa's 99 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(2.40%)
Above
(2.40%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(0.73%)
23
32
55
Below
(0.73%)
19
20
39
 
42
52
94
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Iowa:
2010-2022 = 0.73%
2022 = 2.40%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Iowa counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Iowa's average annual manufacturing employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 0.73%) as well as near-term (2022 = 2.40%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Iowa's 99 counties, 32 (32%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Iowa:
2010-2022 = 0.73%
2022 = 2.40%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 23 Iowa counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 0.73%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 2.40%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Observe that 23 (23%) of Iowa's 99 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Iowa:
2010-2022 = 0.73%
2022 = 2.40%
This figure shows the distribution of the 20 Iowa counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 0.73%), while they outpaced Iowa's average near-term (2022 = 2.40%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Iowa's 99 counties, 20% (20) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Iowa:
2010-2022 = 0.73%
2022 = 2.40%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 19 Iowa counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual manufacturing employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 0.73%) as well as near-term (2022 = 2.40%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
19% of Iowa's counties, 19 of 99, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Iowa
Manufacturing Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
7
3.85
 
16
6.96
246
 
22
2.64
 
50
2.53
1,540
 
33
1.99
 
41
3.20
3,802
 
53
0.90
 
47
2.96
940
 
39
1.60
 
34
3.82
1,658
 
21
2.66
 
25
5.15
1,572
 
9
3.63
 
8
8.03
323
 
27
2.35
 
17
6.87
10,629
 
4
4.36
 
2
17.10
897
 
5
4.34
 
9
8.02
1,589
 
11
3.13
 
39
3.63
942
 
31
2.07
 
19
6.24
3,015
 
38
1.79
 
46
3.00
1,513
 
23
2.52
 
23
5.34
966
 
32
2.06
 
30
4.55
253
 
2
9.18
 
10
7.95
448
 
43
1.23
 
40
3.23
704
 
8
3.69
 
13
7.91
2,020
 
24
2.48
 
11
7.95
8,532
 
52
0.91
 
48
2.90
1,100
 
44
1.22
 
32
3.97
1,442
 
6
4.17
 
28
4.82
631
 
48
1.14
 
3
13.15
456
 
36
1.82
 
12
7.92
19,808
 
30
2.11
 
37
3.71
1,956
 
25
2.44
 
15
7.07
560
 
16
2.81
 
14
7.77
777
 
41
1.29
 
31
4.40
6,139
 
29
2.26
 
21
5.83
5,303
 
54
0.88
 
35
3.81
2,480
 
50
1.07
 
42
3.17
6,863
 
35
1.85
 
5
10.24
592
Slipping Counties
 
26
2.37
 
68
0.69
1,027
 
19
2.72
 
62
1.18
1,031
 
49
1.13
 
94
-11.36
819
 
10
3.54
 
63
1.13
1,526
 
55
0.80
 
77
-1.62
1,091
 
46
1.21
 
78
-2.09
2,435
 
42
1.28
 
59
1.59
1,602
 
34
1.90
 
69
0.00
776
 
15
2.81
 
81
-2.64
442
 
37
1.80
 
84
-3.25
2,415
 
47
1.16
 
90
-5.65
3,906
 
13
2.95
 
58
1.70
1,436
 
51
1.04
 
72
-0.89
1,675
 
20
2.66
 
56
1.90
268
 
18
2.77
 
75
-1.39
782
 
40
1.34
 
60
1.42
1,069
 
14
2.91
 
54
2.22
552
 
17
2.78
 
76
-1.62
3,096
 
1
13.23
 
74
-1.07
1,199
 
12
3.00
 
55
2.17
612
 
3
5.20
 
91
-7.37
1,030
 
45
1.21
 
65
0.96
527
 
28
2.34
 
92
-9.62
1,390
Gaining Counties
 
79
-0.85
 
4
10.64
208
 
60
0.49
 
44
3.10
14,963
 
81
-0.97
 
38
3.69
1,547
 
74
-0.48
 
22
5.66
635
 
93
-3.83
 
20
6.24
477
 
88
-2.53
 
7
9.98
683
 
72
-0.30
 
27
4.88
4,620
 
69
-0.14
 
52
2.45
1,756
 
68
-0.02
 
24
5.26
681
 
85
-1.69
 
1
24.83
749
 
92
-3.67
 
29
4.70
312
 
71
-0.16
 
36
3.77
5,280
 
77
-0.57
 
49
2.66
772
 
73
-0.46
 
45
3.00
18,496
 
80
-0.87
 
26
5.06
353
 
58
0.65
 
51
2.46
5,286
 
57
0.65
 
33
3.89
12,280
 
75
-0.53
 
43
3.11
564
 
59
0.54
 
18
6.39
3,795
 
62
0.40
 
6
9.99
947
Lagging Counties
 
86
-2.32
 
87
-3.79
559
 
63
0.37
 
67
0.79
641
 
83
-1.32
 
71
-0.85
2,681
 
87
-2.52
 
86
-3.44
1,768
 
76
-0.53
 
93
-9.91
3,918
 
84
-1.52
 
66
0.88
230
 
94
-7.34
 
95
-19.13
672
 
91
-3.21
 
70
-0.84
475
 
61
0.44
 
79
-2.29
1,238
 
67
-0.01
 
89
-4.89
895
 
78
-0.60
 
96
-37.27
1,335
 
65
0.21
 
53
2.33
1,009
 
66
0.00
 
85
-3.36
3,821
 
70
-0.15
 
64
1.08
281
 
82
-1.31
 
61
1.40
4,259
 
64
0.35
 
80
-2.31
7,120
 
90
-2.65
 
82
-2.84
1,130
 
89
-2.64
 
83
-3.21
693
 
56
0.67
 
57
1.89
1,507
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
88
-4.61
455
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
107
 
U
U
 
73
-0.95
104
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.73
 
2.40
229,880
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.64
 
3.63
13,523,700
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1500N_510500_LSGL
 
   
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